Image by the Vietnam National Energy Efficiency Programme
The aim of the project was to (a) identify key factors determining the private energy consumption of Vietnamese households (such as the ownership of air condition, refrigerator, etc.. and how often they use these appliances) and (b) model future scenarios by identified determining factors (e.g. income) to forecast likely or expected increases in energy demand by private households (e.g. how would forecast rises in average income affect ownership and use of air condition in Viet Nam?).
Example of My Work
When I joined the project, the survey in Viet Nam had already concluded.
Analysing the data from the survey, my task mirrored the two aims of the project:
- Identify the factors determining private households’ energy use (such as the ownership and use of appliances) in causal analysis.
- Model future scenarios for energy usage of households along the forecast changes of identified causal factors such as rising incomes or urbanisation.
Figure 1 below is a visualisation of probabilities of households owning at least one air con disaggregated by rural/small town/city and twelve income groups (in VND).
Figure 2, drawn from the same chapter on air conditioning, illustrates how regular usage of air con lags the actual ownership by income (in VND).
Subsequently manipulating determining factors such as the average income and/or the percentage of people living in urban environments thus provided forecasts on how the energy consumption of Vietnamese households could change in the future.
Of course, a range of other factors were important for determining how Vietnamese households consume energy.
In the air con example used above, the divide between Viet Nam’s tropical South and more temperate North was an equally important factor to consider.
Nevertheless, the examples should give an idea of the general scope of my work in this particular project.
If you have any question or would like to have more information on this particular work of mine, please contact me at any time.